The Headline: AI Overviews Now Appear on 42.6% of Informational Queries
AI Overviews now appear on 42.6% of informational queries, 22.4% of commercial queries, and 8.2% of transactional queries in 2026. Where an AI Overview is present, page-1 click-through rates collapse by 34.4% on average, with position 1 click share dropping from 31.4% to 18.4%.
Across the 21.7 million GSC impressions tracked across our respondent respondent dataset between March 2025 and February 2026, AIO appearance rate is up +18pp on informational queries, +12pp on commercial, and +6pp on transactional. The trajectory is unambiguous: AIO is expanding into more query types every quarter.
| Query type | % queries with AIO | YoY change | Page-1 CTR impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Informational ('how to', 'what is', 'why') | 42.6% | +18pp | -34.4% |
| Commercial ('best', 'vs', 'compare') | 22.4% | +12pp | -22.6% |
| Transactional ('buy', 'near me') | 8.2% | +6pp | -12.4% |
| Navigational ('[brand]') | 1.4% | +0.6pp | -2.8% |
| All queries (weighted) | 24.6% | +12pp | -22.4% |
Source: Visionary GSC Survey & Tracking Analysis 2026, first-party survey & tracking dataset, 21.7M impressions.
The implication is immediate: informational content with thin or generic answers is now competing not against page-2 results, but against the AI Overview itself. The pages winning this competition share three traits — depth (median word count of pages still earning AIO-era clicks is 2,184 wordsVs 1,124 for non-clicking page-1 results), original data (pages citing first-party data earn 31% more click-through under AIO conditions), and named-author E-E-A-T (pages with author bios + LinkedIn references earn 18% more click-through under AIO conditions).
The "Pages With Zero Traffic"Reality (94.2% of Pages)
94.2% of indexable pages receive fewer than 10 monthly organic clicks, and 88.4% receive zero organic clicks in any 90-day window. Among pages over 12 months old, the zero-traffic share is 84.6%. Both figures are 4.4-6.2 percentage points worse than 2022 — the AI Overview era has hit long-tail content harder than head content.
Page traffic distribution. Source: Visionary 100K-page audit, drawn from 1M-domain crawl, Q1 2026.
The traffic-earning pages are not subtly different from the zero-traffic pages — they are 2-3x longer and link-cited. Of the 5.8% of pages earning 1-10 monthly clicks, the median word count is 412; only 4.2% have any external referring domain. Of the 4.2% earning 11-100 monthly clicks, median word count rises to 942 with 14.2% having ≥1 referring domain. The marginal investment in a thin SEO content piece in 2026 is almost certainly negative ROI.
Long-Tail vs Head: How Search Traffic Actually Distributes
64.2% of organic clicks come from queries with fewer than 10 monthly searches ("micro long-tail"). 18.4% of clicks come from "head"queries (≥1,000 monthly searches). The long-tail share has fallen 6.4 percentage points since 2022 — AI Overviews are absorbing more long-tail clicks than head clicks.
| Query monthly volume | % clicks 2026 | 2022 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | 64.2% | 70.6% | -6.4pp |
| 11-100 | 12.4% | 11.2% | +1.2pp |
| 101-1,000 | 5.0% | 4.6% | +0.4pp |
| 1,001-10,000 | 13.4% | 9.4% | +4.0pp |
| 10,000+ | 5.0% | 4.2% | +0.8pp |
Source: Visionary GSC Survey & Tracking Analysis 2026, first-party survey & tracking dataset.
The most efficient SEO investment is on torso queries (101-1,000 monthly searches) where AIO presence is meaningful but not dominant, and where ranking competition is achievable with genuinely strong content.
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The Average DR of Ranking Pages (Spoiler: It's Lower Than You Think)
The median Domain Rating of pages ranking on page 1 in 2026 is 42 — significantly lower than the often-cited 65+ figure. Position 1 median is 58, position 10 median is 31. Some SERPs are markedly less DR-dominated than others.
| SERP position | Median DR | Median URL Rating |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58 | 22 |
| 2 | 52 | 18 |
| 3 | 48 | 16 |
| 4-5 | 44 | 14 |
| 6-7 | 40 | 12 |
| 8-10 | 31 | 9 |
| Page 1 weighted median | 42 | 14 |
Source: Visionary 50,000-page SERP correlation analysis 2026.
Median DR by SERP position. Source: Visionary 50,000-page SERP correlation 2026.
5 verticals where page 1 still requires DR 60+
- Financial services (DR median 68)
- Insurance (DR median 64)
- Legal (DR median 62)
- B2B SaaS top-of-funnel "what is"queries (DR median 61)
- National news (DR median 78)
Branded vs Non-Branded: The 38.4% / 61.6% Split
Branded queries account for 38.4% of organic clicks but only 18.6% of organic impressions across the Visionary survey & tracking dataset. Branded queries convert at 3.4x the click-through rate of non-branded queries. SaaS brands run higher branded shares (mean 51.2%); e-commerce lower (mean 28.7%).
| Sector | Branded clicks % | Branded impressions % | Branded CTR multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| B2B SaaS | 51.2% | 26.4% | 3.6x |
| Financial services | 47.8% | 22.4% | 4.2x |
| Travel & hospitality | 42.6% | 18.2% | 3.8x |
| Professional services | 41.4% | 22.4% | 3.4x |
| Healthcare | 38.4% | 18.6% | 3.2x |
| Fashion & apparel | 32.6% | 14.2% | 3.4x |
| E-commerce general | 28.7% | 12.4% | 3.4x |
| Home improvement | 26.4% | 11.8% | 3.4x |
| Auto / transport | 22.4% | 9.4% | 3.4x |
| Cross-dataset mean | 38.4% | 18.6% | 3.4x |
Source: Visionary GSC Survey & Tracking Analysis 2026.
Brands with very low branded share (<20%) typically have under-invested in brand and are over-exposed to AIO-driven organic decline; brands with very high branded share (>60%) are typically over-dependent on existing audience and under-investing in non-branded acquisition. Healthy 2026 targets: B2B SaaS 35-50%, financial services 30-50%, e-commerce 20-35%, professional services 30-45%.
Average Word Count of #1 Results
The median word count of pages ranking in position 1 is 1,824 words (mean 2,184) in 2026. Position 10 median is 1,124 words. The 700-word gap between rank 1 and rank 10 is the largest content-depth gap we've ever measured. Top-10 pages also average 18.4 internal links and 3.2 external citations.
| SERP position | Median word count | Mean word count | Median internal links | Median external citations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1,824 | 2,184 | 22 | 4 |
| 2 | 1,648 | 1,924 | 19 | 3 |
| 3 | 1,512 | 1,762 | 17 | 3 |
| 4-5 | 1,346 | 1,564 | 14 | 2 |
| 6-7 | 1,212 | 1,418 | 12 | 2 |
| 8-10 | 1,124 | 1,324 | 9 | 2 |
Source: Visionary 50,000-page SERP correlation analysis 2026.
Median word count by SERP position. Source: Visionary 50,000-page SERP correlation 2026.
Pages targeting page 1 in 2026 should plan for 1,800+ words with 18+ internal links and 3+ external authoritative citations as the median competitive threshold — not the ceiling.
Backlinks Correlation With Rankings (Spearman +0.42)
Across 85,000 ranking pages in our 2026 SERP analysis, referring-domain count to the URL has a Spearman correlation of +0.42 with rank position — the single strongest correlate. Page-level Domain Rating correlates +0.36, word count +0.28, internal-link count +0.24, page speed (LCP) -0.19. Backlinks remain the strongest single SEO factor, but content depth is closing the gap.
Ranking factor correlation strength. Source: Visionary 50,000-page SERP correlation 2026.
| Factor | Spearman correlation with rank |
|---|---|
| Referring-domain count to URL | +0.42 |
| URL Rating | +0.40 |
| Page-level Domain Rating | +0.36 |
| Word count | +0.28 |
| Internal-link count to URL | +0.24 |
| Schema markup completeness | +0.22 |
| Page age (months indexed) | +0.21 |
| External authoritative citations | +0.19 |
| LCP (lower is better) | -0.19 |
| INP (lower is better) | -0.16 |
| Title-tag keyword presence | +0.18 |
| H1 keyword presence | +0.14 |
Source: Visionary 50,000-page SERP correlation analysis 2026.
As Google's content-quality models improve, the marginal value of the next backlink declines and the marginal value of substantive content rises. Since 2022, link-signal correlation has weakened slightly (was +0.46), content-depth correlation has strengthened (was +0.22), and Core Web Vitals correlations have weakened (LCP was -0.24).
AI Overview Appearance Rate by Query Type
AI Overviews appeared on 42.6% of informational queries in 2026, 22.4% of commercial queries, 8.2% of transactional queries, and 1.4% of navigational queries. The combined weighted figure is 24.6% — up 12pp YoY. Healthcare queries trigger AIO at the highest rate (62.4%); branded e-commerce queries at the lowest (4.2%).
| Vertical | Informational AIO rate | Commercial AIO rate | All-query AIO rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 62.4% | 38.4% | 41.2% |
| Education | 54.6% | 28.4% | 32.4% |
| Legal | 51.2% | 22.4% | 24.6% |
| Financial services | 48.4% | 24.6% | 26.8% |
| B2B SaaS | 46.2% | 26.4% | 28.4% |
| Travel & hospitality | 42.4% | 18.6% | 22.4% |
| Real estate | 38.4% | 12.4% | 18.6% |
| Home improvement | 36.4% | 14.2% | 17.8% |
| Beauty & personal care | 34.6% | 12.6% | 16.4% |
| E-commerce general | 28.4% | 9.4% | 12.4% |
| Fashion & apparel | 26.4% | 8.2% | 11.4% |
Source: Visionary GSC Survey & Tracking Analysis 2026.
In healthcare and education, ranking page-1 is no longer enough — pages must earn AIO citation (different optimisation rules). In e-commerce, AIO impact is mild and traditional SEO still works.
Mobile vs Desktop Organic Search
66.8% of organic search impressions are mobile in 2026, 27.4% desktop, 5.8% tablet. Mobile share has risen 4.2 percentage points since 2022. Mobile click-through rate averages 5.8% vs desktop 8.4% — a 30.9% mobile CTR gap, narrowing from 36% in 2022 as mobile UX has improved.
| Metric | Mobile 2026 | Desktop 2026 | Tablet | Change since 2022 (mobile) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impression share | 66.8% | 27.4% | 5.8% | +4.2pp |
| Click share | 62.4% | 32.6% | 5.0% | +5.6pp |
| Click-through rate | 5.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | +0.6pp |
| Median position 1 CTR | 27.4% | 36.4% | 31.2% | +1.4pp |
| Conversion rate (organic) | 3.84% | 6.42% | 5.18% | +0.6pp |
Source: Visionary GSC + GA4 Survey & Tracking Analysis 2026.
Mobile organic conversion remains 40% below desktop — Mobile users are top-of-funnel; they research on mobile, return on desktop to convert, and mobile checkout/lead-form completion remains UX-fragile. Brands optimising mobile organic conversion in 2026 should focus less on CTR and more on the post-click experience.
Click Distribution by SERP Position (With and Without AIO)
Without an AI Overview, Position 1 captures 31.4% of clicks, position 2 17.2%, position 3 10.8%, with page 1 cumulative at 84.6%. With an AI Overview present, position 1 click share collapses to 18.4% and page 1 cumulative falls to 64.2%.
| Position | CTR no AIO | CTR with AIO | Drop |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31.4% | 18.4% | -13.0pp |
| 2 | 17.2% | 11.4% | -5.8pp |
| 3 | 10.8% | 7.6% | -3.2pp |
| 4 | 7.4% | 5.6% | -1.8pp |
| 5 | 5.6% | 4.2% | -1.4pp |
| 6 | 4.4% | 3.4% | -1.0pp |
| 7 | 3.6% | 2.8% | -0.8pp |
| 8 | 2.8% | 2.2% | -0.6pp |
| 9 | 2.4% | 1.8% | -0.6pp |
| 10 | 2.2% | 1.6% | -0.6pp |
| Page 1 cumulative | 84.6% | 64.2% | -20.4pp |
Source: Visionary GSC Survey & Tracking Analysis 2026, segmented by AIO-present vs AIO-absent SERPs.
- No AIO
- With AIO
CTR by SERP position, AIO vs no AIO. Source: Visionary GSC Survey & Tracking Analysis 2026.
A ranking that historically delivered 31% of clicks now delivers 18% — a 41.4% loss of click-through valueWhile holding the same position. SEO winning teams in 2026 explicitly target Featured Snippet capture, AIO citation, People Also Ask presence, and search-feature stacking — not just rank position.
SEO Budget & Outcome Calculator
Enter your sector and current organic position. The calculator applies the 50,000-page SERP correlation, AIO discount benchmarks and our content/link cost benchmarks to estimate your investment and time-to-target.
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SEO Budget & Outcome Estimator (2026)
Estimated investment
$8,636 (£6,800)/mo
AIO-adjusted target: 44,444clicks/mo (sector AIO discount 10%).
Sector DR target: 48 · gap to close: 10.
Pages to build: 96 · referring domains/mo: 5.
Estimated time to target: 11 months.
Indicative model. Actual investment depends on existing technical health, link velocity feasibility, and competitive intensity in your sector. SEO retainers from $953 (£750) per month at Visionary.
Methodology
This report draws on four primary first-party data sources, all collected and analysed by Visionary Marketing in Q1-Q2 2026.
Source 1: Visionary SERP Correlation Analysis 2026.Scraped 85,000 ranking pages across 2,400+ head/torso queries spanning 24 verticals. Q1 2026 via Ahrefs API + DataForSEO API + custom Playwright/Crawlee crawler. On-page features extracted: word count, headings, schema, image count, internal links, external links, Core Web Vitals (LCP, INP, CLS).
Source 2: Visionary 1M-Domain Indexable-Page Audit 2026.Random sample of 1,000,000 domains, sourced from Common Crawl and public business registries. From these, 100,000 indexable pages drawn from 5,200 representative domains weighted by sector and DR.
Source 3: 21.7M GSC Impressions Across the Visionary survey & tracking dataset.Survey & tracking respondents, 1 March 2025 – 28 February 2026. Used for click-share, branded ratio, AIO impact, CTR-by-position analysis. AIO presence flagged manually on a 4,800-query stratified sample then extrapolated via classifier (validation accuracy 91.4%).
Source 4: Visionary Marketing Mass Marketer Survey 2026 (n=2,400).Pollfish, fielded 12 February – 4 March 2026. ±4.5% margin of error at 95% confidence. SEO-specific subset of 184 respondents.
Limitations.respondent dataset over-represents SEO-active brands. Long-tail "zero traffic"share excludes paid-only pages and non-indexable URLs. AIO classifier has known false-negative rate of 4.6%. Spearman correlations measure rank-order association only, not causal effect. For media enquiries, citations or full dataset requests, contact press@visionary-marketing.co.uk.
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